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5.3 Caliber C: Market trends

In this section, you will quantify and qualify the market trends related to your creation. This will help you define your potential market.

Refer to the reference example

“Times are changing at an accelerated pace.

The report of the Grantham Research Institute and Systemiq on the history of 21st-century global growth, led by Nicholas Stern and Mattia Romani, points out:

 “The world holds in its hands a new narrative of growth and development propelled by investment and innovation in green technologies, driven by artificial intelligence (AI) (…) and it’s a far more enticing and inclusive story than the dirty and destructive paths followed in the past (…).
Over the next five years, more than half of the crucial tipping points in green technologies will have been reached, making them competitive in key markets. The process of structural and systemic change will span decades. However, this decade is pivotal in curbing the risk of greater climate instability. Accelerating action now is imperative.”

The CreaFREE ecosystem is poised to play a significant role in realizing these trends. Its Unicorn plan creates new vectors for the announced acceleration.
Unicorns are companies that start from scratch and achieve a billion-dollar valuation in less than a decade. As of February 2022, there were 1,000 unicorns worldwide. If the growth observed over the past three years continues, there could be 60,000 unicorns by 2030. At that point, a tipping point would be reached: green unicorns might have the opportunity to address the climate issue.

Israel, the startup nation, is exemplary. Its GDP was $255 billion in 2012. According to World Bank statistics, it has nearly doubled since and will reach $497 billion in 2022. High-tech unicorns are among the driving forces behind this growth. They are particularly numerous and pivotal in this country. Israel ranks first in the world in terms of unicorns per capita. In 2022, there were 97 unicorns in this small country of around ten million people, whereas the UK had 43 and France had 26.

The United States has the highest number of unicorns in the world. In the second quarter of 2023, there are over 800. Out of two unicorns in the world, one is of American origin. Their sales are about 3% of GDP. Much of this success is due to the U.S. remaining a leader in intellectual property, being attractive to startups, and having a few good incubators.

World incubator productivity is currently low. On average, each incubator has produced only 0.1 unicorns to date. Lacking proper tools to effectively support startups, most incubators are limited to providing hosting and logistical support.
As part of the IcF Unicorn Plan, CreaCORN proposes to provide selected incubators with a standard process that will enable more startups to efficiently raise funds and reach the unicorn status.

According to the above report, the faster growth of emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) will change global industrial geography and business models. The CreaFREE ecosystem will help mitigate this trend by reintroducing more diversified and less vulnerable supply chains through contracts rather than outsourcing. Multiple sources of key products and inputs will once again be available. At the same time, CreaCORN promotes equal access to intellectual property rights for all countries. As the report notes, countries around the world are competing to attract investment to gain a dynamic comparative advantage. By focusing on sharing best practices and green technologies, CreaPOLES will promote both interdependence and a more balanced territorial distribution of production. These will organize certifications, amicable conflict resolutions and the promotion of the best technologies in each creative sector.

The rapid transition to sustainable growth will require large-scale investments: “Somewhere between $5 and $7 trillion annually in gross global investment for clean energy and digital transformation (…) the necessary global increase in investment will be about 2 to 3% of GDP, less in wealthy countries, more in EMDE.”

The CreaFREE ecosystem will put an end to inequalities between patrician and plebeian nations resulting from the high cost of international intellectual property. All creators will have free access to protecting their creative innovations through CreaBOOKs. Due to the diffusion of the CreaCORN standard, many incubators worldwide can more equitably benefit from the high investment rates of unicorns. As emphasized in the Grantham report, there will be no global austerity. “These investments will create a strong and lasting recovery from the current crisis and prevent a lost decade for development.”

The report concludes: “The new narrative of sustainable growth centered on technology represents the greatest investment opportunity since the industrial revolution. The private sector will provide the majority of this investment, but public-private partnerships in policy, innovation, and financing are essential. Opportunities are present for all countries.”

The CreaCORN Standard will provide all startups in the private sector with the tools they need to accompany these trends:

  • An accessible CreaBOOK to describe, protect and enhance their intellectual property.
  • The CreaCORN process, phase by phase, to secure the necessary investments and reach the market.
  • A metrology that will serve as an attractive and common tool to measure progress.
  • A focus on responsible development for all companies that are on the Unicorn highway of the CreaFREE ecosystem.

The first incubators to implement CreaCORN will gain a significant head start. After the initial demonstrations, more will follow: At least 1,000 incubators using a well-implemented license can be involved in the creation of 15,000 new unicorns by 2030. Incubators located in creative valleys should benefit from the support of local authorities through the implementation of the anti-offshoring clause for a period of at least 70 years, guaranteed by the pledge pact accepted by the startup on its CreaBOOK.

CreaCORN certification will significantly contribute to mitigating the negative effects of technological progress that humanity has experienced over the last three centuries. Ethical operating charters will guide CreaCORN unicorns on the path of continuous ecological improvement — far from the destructive paths of past progress.”

To do:

Play and define the trends in your potential market.